“Are the airstrikes in Yemen working?”
“Well, when you say, ‘working’ — are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they gonna continue? Yes”, answered President Joe Biden
For nearly a decade, Yemen has been at war, pummeled by a Saudi-led military coalition supplied with American bombs in an effort to defeat the Houthis - a once-scrappy tribal militia backed by Iran that has evolved into a de facto government in northern Yemen…. ”Saudis tried that path (bombing the Houthis) in Yemen for nine years, and clearly it didn’t work”, said Farea Al-Muslimi of Chatham House in London.
Mr. Biden’s felt his decision to unleash airstrikes against the Yemen-based Houthi militants… was forced.
”There is already a regional war, no longer limited to Gaza, but already spread to Lebanon Iraq, Syria and Yemen”, said Hugh Lovatt, a Mideast expert.In the last week alone, the list of attacks: Iran fired missiles toward Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. Pakistan responded by striking Iranian territory. Turkey hit Kurdish targets in Norther Iraq and Syria. Hamas fired rockets toward Israel; Israel continued to pound southern Gaza and struck southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah militants have fire rockets toward Israel in recent months. Houthi militants in Yemen took aim at commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the United States struck Houthi targets with seven rounds of strikes.
Attacks in Syria and Iraq Ratchet Tensions in a Region Already on Edge
An all-out war with Russia could develop within the next 20 years, a top NATO official has warned… “[NATO forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia.” … “There is no scenario in this that if Ukraine doesn’t win, that could end well for Europe.” Senior NATO officials are concerned that their governments and private arms manufacturers are falling behind in preparations for an attack, as stockpiles of weapons and ammunition continue to dwindle from the conflict in Ukraine.
Mr. Biden’s quote has been making the rounds. Many see in Mr. Biden’s response a self-evident and self-aware acknowledgement that bombing Houthis will not stop the Houthi from attacking shipping lanes. The statement is a self-evident impotence. ‘No’, Mr. Biden seemed to say, ‘this won’t work, but to hell with it we will bomb them anyway.’
Starting with Mr. Biden’s response as a representative example, when was the last time American action in government foreign policy had its intended and as advertised effect? I’ll list some examples.
If we invade Iraq we will remake the Middle East into American aligned region and disarm Iraq of WMDs.
If we invade Afghanistan, we will defeat terrorism and remake Afghanistan into a western facing nation.
If get involved in the war between Ukraine and Russia, serving as their Ukrainian supply chain, we can deal Russia a humiliating and backbreaking military defeat.
If we hammer Russia with economic sanctions we can cripple their economy and stop their capacity for war.
If we shut down businesses and enforce medical procedures tied to the right to make a living we can stop Covid.
If we take these vaccines, we won’t get covid anymore.
I trust these examples are sufficiently self-evident not to exhaustively tease through the entire body of failures to deliver the promised results and litany of unintended bad effects that followed them. None of these actions have worked as promised and expected in the good faith of their proponents. Some have failed spectacularly. Some of the goalposts have moved multiple timezones. Some have moved to another planet. Some of resulted in consequences in ways that confound the original set of expectations - such as in Iraq, such as the U.S. military and establishment declaring Iran to be the winner of the U.S. war in Iraq - an outcome the Americans never saw coming and was not on anyone’s radar. In a similar regard - the sanctions on Russia did not cripple Russia’s economy, but instead caused global inflation and is currently strengthening Russia’s ties with China and India.
Recently the author wondered if American voters understood that having entered the fight with Ukraine, having declared our intent to break Russia and put our weapons into the game, that the war has started and will not end even when the fighting stops. Well, maybe they do. Obviously that concern echoes the statement NATO released about inevitable war with Russia within 20 years.
What is the difference between regional war and world war?
A spooky dynamic in conflicts have emerged in the past couple of years. It’s a feedback loop effect. No action taken to stop the fighting is actually stopping or de-escalating war. All action taken to stop the fighting is perversely leading to escalations. With that pattern in place, wars can only increase and start but do not stop, it’s just a matter of time before its III.
The curveballs everyone predicts - what if China decides now is the time to make a move on America’s asserted right to defend Taiwan? North Korea South Korea? One to keep an eye on that may be off radar is the ‘coup’ belt of Africa. After a coup, America typically refuses to recognize the new ruling leadership as a legitimate government. This opens the opportunity for less discriminating partners to step in. Russia is a major security partner of (at least) three African nations and are elbowing the U.S. out of Niger. After Niger Coup, U.S. Scrambles to Keep a Vital Air Base - The New York Times (nytimes.com) On the economic partnering side, China is establishing its interests in the lithium reserves, oil, cobalt, farm and other natural resources across large parts of Africa.
Reality and facts are stubborn things and are disobeying Washington for a long time. Whatever the intellectual, political or moral merits of the thinking that dominates our government and foreign policy, in theory it all may sound great - and I don’t mean this as a criticism of the above policies, or weigh in on the debates, but just to point out that all that aside its ain’t working as advertised and it’s blowing back to their eternal surprise. From that analysis, one has to wonder how long the world can continue in a pattern of behavior where wars once started only escalate and expand in scope. Its particulars may be nuanced and fairly balanced, but from a factual analysis the general thrust is obviously ignorant. They can’t accomplish what they say they can. They are taken by surprise by the actual consequences of their actions.
I wonder are we noticing. Its not just the incompetence. Its not just the lack of understanding what it is we are accomplishing when taking action. Its that coupled with the world at large now, a world where conflicts are taking off and not being resolved - only growing more heated and widespread. The war in Gaza is regional. Make no mistake, the war in Ukraine officially became regional war with the NordStream pipeline bombings and NATO countries decided to send in a river of arms and other support. And now NATO is literally saying we can plan for it to expand to all of Europe within 20 years. Can we demand better from our government - are we concerned where this handbasket on this road of good intent is leading us. Why are these on-ramps to war continually going up? Is there any way off? Are our hands really forced to keep trying more of the same violent means and expecting different results?
All I can say is pray for peace and some unexpected change in the dynamic of escalating wars to this start to 2024.